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☆ 10 Years, 100 Stories: The Work That Defines the Upshot
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( The Upshot Staff | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +20 min

Ten years ago this week, The New York Times introduced the Upshot, a section devoted to explaining “politics, policy and everyday life.” That’s a wide scope, by design. As a result, more than 5,000 articles later, the Upshot has been many things to many readers. To mark our 10th birthday, we’ve collected 100 stories that embody the Upshot. WordleBot Eden Weingart/The New York Times When Wordle first became popular, several people on the internet claimed, plausibly, that they had come up with the “best” opening word. Force of Ship Impact Was on the Scale of a Rocket Launch Erin Schaff/The New York Times We think of the Upshot as a place where back-of-the-envelope calculations can be both helpful and welcome.

Persons: ”, Nate Cohn’s, we’ve, Kevin Quealy, John Branch, John, Patrick Thomas, tut, Trump, pollsters, Obamacare, Leif Parsons, We’re, Jason Henry, Tony Luong, Jordan, ‘, Ruth Fremson, Laurel, ’ Rodrigo Corral, Alex Welsh, Paul Romer, Tim Enthoven, Barack Obama, epidemiologists, It’s, you’re, WordleBot Eden, Wordle, Lila Barth, McCabe, Tom Brady, ChatGPT, —, Erin Schaff Organizations: New York Times, Facebook, Yankees, Red, State Newspaper, ESPN, The Athletic, The Times, You’re, Voters, Trump, Mr, Times, Siena College, Walmart, The New York Times, Jordan Siemens, Health, New, Nike, Democratic, Twitter, America, Iowa, Iowa Democratic, Cancer, Hit, Biden, Insurance, Roe America, Disorders, Republican, Republican Party of, U.S, Budget, NASA, National, Traffic, Administration, Yorkers, Force Locations: It’s, Red Sox, State, America, Dakota, Ireland, Chipotle, Japan, U.S, United States, Siena, New Pennsylvania, District, Iowa, Covid, York City, New York, Pennsylvania, Roe, Tonga, Arizona, York, Holland

☆ Was Trump Benefiting From Being Out of the News?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Donald J. Trump appears to be a stronger candidate than he was four years ago, polling suggests, and not just because a notable number of voters look back on his presidency as a time of relative peace and prosperity. It’s also because his political liabilities, like his penchant to offend and his legal woes, don’t dominate the news the way they once did. In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 38 percent of voters said they’d been offended by Mr. Trump “recently,” even as more than 70 percent said they had been offended by him at some point. We didn’t ask a question like this back in 2016 or 2020 for comparison (unfortunately), but my subjective thumb-in-the-wind gauge says that, if we had, more voters would have said yes to the “recently offended” question. Mr. Trump’s most outrageous comments just don’t dominate the news cycle the way they did four to eight years ago.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, It’s, they’d Organizations: New York Times, Siena College

☆ A Closer Look at a Slight Shift in the Polls
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Donald J. Trump led Mr. Biden by one percentage point among likely voters nationwide, 46 percent to 45 percent. It represents a modest improvement for the president since February, when Mr. Trump led our poll by four points among likely voters. You can’t exactly call a one-point deficit the “Biden comeback,” but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden

☆ Revisiting Florida 2000 and the Butterfly Effect
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Joe Lieberman and the butterfly ballotJoe Lieberman, the former Democratic senator, died this week at 82. He was Al Gore’s vice-presidential nominee in 2000, when the Gore-Lieberman ticket came less than 600 Florida votes away from winning the White House. But I don’t think it’s always appreciated that we probably do know that Mr. Gore would have won Florida, and therefore the presidency, if it weren’t for the infamous “butterfly ballot” in Palm Beach County. If you don’t remember — it has been a while — the butterfly ballot was very unusual. Candidates were listed on both sides of the ballot, and voters cast a ballot by punching a corresponding hole in the middle.

Persons: We’re, Donald J, Trump, Joe Lieberman, Al Gore’s, Gore, Lieberman, We’ll, it’s, George W, Bush, Pat Buchanan Organizations: Democratic, White, Reform Party Locations: Florida, Palm Beach County

☆ Opinion: Why a booming economy isn’t helping Biden
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Fareed Zakaria | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

It used to be that the public’s view of the president depended mostly on its view of the economy. Democrats who had previously thought the economy was in terrible shape now thought it was booming, and Republicans did the opposite. I argue in the book that it is identity — which encompasses culture, class and tribalism. And when people see their world in flux, they often move not left on economics but right on culture. The left needs to play more effectively on the new crossroads of politics, where culture and class have replaced economics.

Persons: Fareed Zakaria, Fareed, Read, Joe Biden’s, haywire, It’s, Nate Cohn, Barack Obama’s, Donald Trump, ’, Trump, Ronald Inglehart, —, Inglehart, John Burn, “ Organizations: CNN, Fareed’s, The New York Times, Immigration, Trump Locations: America, Sweden, Denmark, France, Austria, Germany, Japan, United States, Nigeria

☆ Share of Democratic Registrations Is Declining, but What Does It Mean?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Newly registered voters, who are disproportionately young and nonwhite, have tended to lean Democratic. That’s been less and less true during the Biden era. A majority of states ask people to select a party affiliation when they register, and last year newly registered Democrats made up only about 53 percent of those who chose a major party — beating Republican sign-ups by a narrow margin of 26 percent to 23 percent of total registrations — according to data from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor.

Persons: That’s, Biden Organizations: Republican

☆ The Election is Set
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It’s Biden vs. Trump. The general election is about to begin. He’s an incumbent president with a strong economy and an opponent facing trial for multiple alleged crimes. Yet according to the polls, Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. This is not what many expected from a Biden-Trump rematch, especially after Democrats were resilient in the midterms and excelled in special elections by campaigning on issues like democracy and abortion.

Persons: It’s Biden, It’ll, Biden, He’s, Trump Organizations: Trump, Biden Locations: Michigan , Nevada , Arizona, Georgia

☆ The 2020 Election Is Back
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

To me, that’s the only real takeaway from Super Tuesday, when President Biden and Donald J. Trump won nearly all of the delegates at stake. The general election is about to begin. On paper, Mr. Biden ought to be the favorite. Yet according to the polls, Mr. Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. He also leads in most national polls over the last month, including a New York Times/Siena College poll last weekend.

Persons: It’s Biden, Trump, Biden, Donald J, He’s, Trump’s Organizations: New York Times, Siena, Biden, Trump Locations: Super, Michigan , Nevada , Arizona, Georgia

Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicMillions of voters in states across the country cast their ballots in the presidential primary on Super Tuesday, leaving little doubt that the November election will be a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. But in a race that is increasingly inevitable, a New York Times/Siena College poll found a critical group of voters who are making the outcome of that race anything but certain. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains who these voters are and why they present a particular threat to Mr. Biden.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, Trump, New York Times, Siena College

The primary season is about to shift into overdrive with Super Tuesday, when Republican voters in 15 states will cast their votes. Polls suggest that former President Donald Trump is very likely to win most, if not all, of these contests. I spoke with Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, about when Trump’s nomination could become a lock. If the polls are right, there’s really only one scenario: Trump finding himself within easy striking distance of the nomination. Put it together, and Trump could easily win more than 90 percent of the delegates available on Super Tuesday.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nate Cohn, — Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson —, Nate, It’s, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, there’s, Trump, Haley, Israel’s, Haiyun Jiang, The New York Times Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, you’re, You’re, ” Trump, Netanyahu, Biden, Israel —, America’s, ”, John Bolton, — Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Michael Gold Read Organizations: Republican, Trump, The, Democratic, Republican National Convention, California —, The New York Times, Univision, Republican Party, Hezbollah, Trump Republican Party, Biden, Democratic Party, “ Locations: Iowa , New Hampshire, California, Georgia, Hawaii , Mississippi, Washington, Arizona, Florida , Illinois , Kansas, Ohio, Gaza . Credit, Gaza, Israel, Lebanese, Rock Hill, S.C, Trump, Michigan

☆ Debbie Dingell Breaks Down Michigan’s Primary
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Katie Glueck | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Debbie Dingell is big on tough love. “She’s very quiet,” President Biden joked recently as he campaigned with the Democratic congresswoman in Michigan, her home state. Move.’”For years, Dingell has sounded alarms when she detects peril for her party in Michigan, a critical battleground state. Overall, as of late Wednesday afternoon Biden had won 81.1 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary; the “uncommitted” effort drew 13.2 percent. (My Times colleague Nate Cohn has a full breakdown of the Michigan vote in his newsletter, The Tilt.)

Persons: Debbie Dingell, “, Biden, ‘ Joe, Dingell, Donald Trump, “ uncommitted, Nate Cohn Organizations: Democratic, Israel, Democrats Locations: Michigan, Gaza

☆ What Does the Uncommitted Vote in Michigan Mean for 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

In Tuesday night’s results in Michigan, around one in eight Democrats voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary — a protest of the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel and the war in Gaza. In some predominantly Arab American precincts in Dearborn, around three in four Democrats cast a protest vote for uncommitted. Having one in eight Democrats vote uncommitted in an uncontested primary is not wholly unusual. As recently as the last time a Democratic president sought re-election, in 2012, 11 percent of Michigan Democratic caucusgoers voted for “uncommitted” instead of for Barack Obama. Having three in four Democratic primary voters in Arab American communities do it, on the other hand, is an eye-popping figure.

Persons: “, Michigan Democratic caucusgoers, uncommitted ”, Barack Obama, Biden Organizations: Democratic, Biden, uncommitted, Michigan Democratic Locations: Michigan, Israel, Gaza, Dearborn, Arab

☆ Three Theories for Why Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It’s still early in the primary season, but a whiff of a possible polling error is already in the air. In Iowa, the final 538 polling average showed Mr. Trump leading Nikki Haley by 34 points with a 53 percent share. In South Carolina, Mr. Trump led by 28 points with 62 percent. In the scheme of primary polls, these aren’t especially large misses. But with Mr. Trump faring well in early general election polls against President Biden, even a modest Trump underperformance in the polls is worth some attention.

Persons: It’s, Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Biden Organizations: Trump Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

☆ On Tom Suozzi and the Long Island Special Election - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Last week, Tom Suozzi won handily in the special election in New York’s Third Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by the serial fraudster George Santos — reclaiming the seat that Suozzi previously held. This was the latest in a series of Democratic victories in special elections, victories that seem on their face to run counter to polls showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race. As Nate Cohn, The Times’s lead polling analyst, has been at pains to point out, there isn’t necessarily a contradiction here. Those who vote in special elections aren’t representative of those who will vote in November, and they may be especially motivated by hot-button issues, especially abortion, that have favored Democrats lately. Furthermore, Long Island, on which N.Y.-03 lies, is an unusual place — something I, who mostly grew up there, can personally confirm.

Persons: Tom Suozzi, George Santos —, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Congressional, Democratic Locations: New, Long

☆ The Republican House Majority Just Became Even Smaller
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When the Democrat Tom Suozzi won yesterday in a special election in New York, it narrowed the Republican majority in the House to the point where the party can only afford two defections on otherwise party-line votes. It also means that any three Republicans could tank a bill, or that they could threaten to do so to gain leverage. Suozzi’s eight-point victory in a district last won by a Republican could offer Democrats a playbook for competing on turf where President Biden and the party remain deeply unpopular. Suozzi broke with party orthodoxy on crime, taxes and, above all, immigration, calling on Biden to shut down the southern border. Suozzi’s election, however, probably doesn’t add much clarity to November’s presidential contest: Over the last three decades, there has been essentially zero relationship between presidential results and special election outcomes, our political analyst Nate Cohn wrote.

Persons: Tom Suozzi, Biden, Suozzi, Nate Cohn Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Biden Locations: New York

☆ Opinion | The Challenges of an Aging President
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Because of his age and his determination to run for a second term, President Biden is taking the American public into uncharted waters. He is the oldest person ever to serve as president, is the oldest ever to run for re-election and, if he is successful, would be 86 at the end of his tenure. Ronald Reagan, by comparison, was an unprecedented 77 when he ended his second term in 1989. A remarkably broad swath of the American public — both Mr. Biden’s supporters and his detractors — have expressed increasing doubts about his ability to serve for another five years because of his age. His assurances, in other words, didn’t work.

Persons: Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden’s, —, Nate Cohn, Biden’s ‘, ’, Robert K, Mr, Hur, snappish, teleprompters, Donald Trump Organizations: “, Times, Mr Locations: Siena

☆ For Voters, When Does Old Become Too Old?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When a reporter asked President Biden on Thursday night about concerns about his age, his first instinct was to reject the premise. A clear majority of Americans harbor serious doubts about it, polls show. Of all the reasons Mr. Biden has narrowly trailed Mr. Trump in the polls for five straight months, this is arguably the single most straightforward explanation. It’s what voters are telling pollsters, whether in open-ended questioning about Mr. Biden or when specifically asked about his age, and they say it in overwhelming numbers. In Times/Siena polling, even a majority of Mr. Biden’s own supporters say he’s too old to be an effective president.

Persons: Biden, Biden’s “, ”, Donald J, Trump, Mr, Biden’s Organizations: Times, Mr Locations: Siena

Our listeners have lots of questions about polling. At this point in a usual primary season, still weeks away from Super Tuesday, most of the attention of polling would be on who might capture the nomination. But this year, with the race all but set, we’re anticipating nine months of polling on two men we already know very well. Today, to prepare for that future and to answer the many questions on the subject, we go behind the scenes with the New York Times polling team. And Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, introduces us to “double haters” and other swingy voters he thinks will decide 2024.

Persons: Nate Cohn Organizations: Super, New York Times

☆ Biden Has Openings for a Comeback on Two Weak Points
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden’s approval ratings are as low as ever. An NBC poll this weekend was only the latest example, showing him trailing Donald J. Trump by five percentage points nationwide, with his approval down to 37 percent. But over the last few months, the conditions for a Biden comeback have gradually come into place. But for the first time since the 2022 midterms, Mr. Biden has an unmistakable political opening. The two big developments have come on what voters say are Mr. Biden’s biggest weaknesses on the issues: the economy and the border.

Persons: Biden’s, Donald J, Trump, Biden Organizations: NBC, Biden, New York Times, Siena College Locations: Siena

Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicPresident Biden has struggled to sell Americans on the positive signs in the economy under his watch, despite figures that look good on paper. That could have important ramifications for his re-election hopes. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The Times, explains why, to understand the situation, it may help to look back at another election, 76 years ago.

Persons: Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, Amazon Music, The Times

☆ Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats’ Success in Special Elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On one hand, there’s polling. On the other hand, there’s election results. Almost every time polls bring Democrats down, there’s a special election result to bring them back up. The limitations of relying on special elections, on the other hand, are not as well understood. Unlike polls, special election results are hard facts, which make them tempting to view as a clear read into the 2024 electorate.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, there’s, Roe, Wade Organizations: Trump . Voters, Daily Kos

☆ It’s Fair to Ask: Is the Republican Race Over?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Is the Republican presidential primary over already? Not quite, but it’s a reasonable question after New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary delivered a clear victory for Donald J. Trump on Tuesday night. Mr. Trump’s 11-point margin of victory is not extraordinarily impressive in its own right. What makes Mr. Trump’s victory so important — and what raises the question about whether the race is over — is that New Hampshire was Ms. Haley’s very best opportunity to change the trajectory of the race. It was arguably her very best opportunity to win a state, period.

Persons: New Hampshire’s, Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Trump’s, Haley’s Organizations: Republican, New Locations: ”, New Hampshire

☆ An Important Victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Not quite, but it’s a reasonable question after New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary delivered a clear victory for Donald Trump last night. Trump’s 12-point margin of victory is not extraordinarily impressive in its own right. In fact, he won by a smaller margin than many pre-election polls suggested. What makes Trump’s victory so important — and what raises the question about whether the race is over — is that New Hampshire was Haley’s best opportunity to change the trajectory of the race. It was arguably her best opportunity to win a state, period.

Persons: New Hampshire’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Nikki Haley, Haley’s Organizations: Republican, New Locations: ”, New Hampshire

☆ The Needle Returns for the New Hampshire Republican Primary
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Nate Cohn | Irineo Cabreros | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Once New Hampshire primary results begin to arrive starting at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time tonight, The Times will start publishing a live estimate of the final result, better known as the Needle. How to watch the Needle tonightOur results pages feature graphics designed to help you understand how each candidate is faring. The hypothetical chart below shows how our live estimates work. Our best estimate for each candidate’s final vote share is shown along with a range of estimates for where things might end up.

Organizations: New, Times Locations: New Hampshire

☆ The Lost DeSantis Moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

There are countless reasons Mr. DeSantis fell apart and ultimately ended his campaign Sunday — including that his opponent proved once again to be a juggernaut. Perhaps Mr. DeSantis might have won the nomination in most other years, if he hadn’t been going against a former president. But rather than dwell on his losing campaign, it’s worth returning to his apparent strength at the outset — that brief moment when Mr. DeSantis, or at least the idea of Mr. DeSantis, routinely led Mr. Trump in high-quality head-to-head polls. In the eight years since Donald J. Trump won the Republican nomination, this was the only moment when Republican voters appeared willing to go a different direction. Mr. DeSantis didn’t capitalize on the moment, but nonetheless it’s the only glimpse we’ve had into the post-Trump Republican Party.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, DeSantis, Trump, Donald J, we’ve Organizations: Republican, Trump Republican Party

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